New math: The electoral threshold can make or break this election

There’s often a party that’s considered the “election surprise” or the kingmaker that ends up being larger than expected, tipping the scales in favor of one side or other.

Elections in Israel are naturally viewed mainly as a competition between the biggest parties over which will end up with the premiership. Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain prime minister, or will he be replaced by Benny Gantz?
And then there are the two approaches to analyzing Likud and Blue and White’s position in the polls: by the bigger party or the bigger bloc. Since Blue and White came together, all the polls have showed them ahead of Likud. Last week’s polling average put Blue and White at 34 and Likud at 30. But almost every poll also shows the right-wing bloc being larger than the center-left bloc. Continue reading
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